Here’s where FTSE 100’s slippery slope may end


Hopefully, one good thing to come from the “Ant & Dec” debacle shall be the demise of their Australian based ‘I’m a Nonentity’ program. It’s existence colours opinions of an entire fabulous country – hosting F1 this weekend – and also an excuse to review the ASX too.

Something quite odd has been going on with the Aussie index. It finally achieved our big picture target of 6,002, managing to eventually better target by 150 points toward the end of last year. Since then, it has been a little crazy, fuelling a strong suspicion any weakness now below 5,875 shall drive the market back to 5,703 points.

The visuals suggest it should be reasonable to hope for some sort of bounce at the 5,700 level as the implication of movement below blue is quite nasty, allowing for 5,485 initially. This would prove a really bad thing as it comes with unwanted baggage which threatens the uptrend since the crash of 2009.

Any bounce from the 5,700 level, capable of bettering the prior highs at 6,150, should prove important, launching the market toward a longer term 6,950 points.

Source: interactive investor      Past performance is not a guide to future performance

As for the FTSE for Friday (UKX), another fitting F word springs to mind as the market is certainly not playing ball. Weakness now continuing below 6,913 points enters a slippery slope toward 6,870 next with secondary, when broken, down at around 6,810 points – a very familiar number for regular readers.

Experience has taught there’s something almost magnetic about these big picture numbers as we’ve been whinging about the 6,800 level for months, ‘knowing’ the market wanted to make its way there and only requiring a suitable excuse.

Alas, achieving 6,800 will provide absolutely no certainty of a near term bounce. The market needs to exceed 7,130 just to escape the immediate March downtrend, a feat which if triggered allows recovery toward 7,185 points initially. Secondary, if bettered, is an almost certain 7,250 points.

But in our heart of hearts, we really expect 6,800 or so before hoping sanity shall prevail.

Have a good weekend.

Source: interactive investor                Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and “top secret” software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know “how it worked” with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

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