Is this small-cap about to break above our target?

Ascent Resources (LSE:AST)

To judge by emails, it appears a few folk are keeping a weather eye on Ascent Resources (AST). Our most recent analysis had suggested it would probably find its way to 0.91p. As it’s now trading at the 1p, it’s certainly within a nod and a wink of target.

As always, there’s a problem!

Chart analysis: Ascent Resources and Gulf Keystone

Will the sodding share bounce? We’ve a fairly big issue should the price make it below 0.91p as theoretically it enters a region where drop targets are prefaced with minus signs. In a normal world, we certainly would anticipate a bounce, ideally just before the 0.91p level is reached and in plain English, this means anytime soon.

Before expanding on bounce potentials, there’s a little nasty the marketplace has proven capable of playing. Should the share price be gapped (aka manipulated) below 0.91p at the open, any inclination of a share price jump would tend vanish, for now anyway. A price shuffle such as this simply will suggest the market isn’t ready to let it run free and equally, our calculations which provoke minus signs are complete tosh.

For now, any bounce exceeding 1.25p is liable to be serious, essentially lighting the fuse for some growth to 1.6p. Better still, in the event 1.6p is bettered, a longer term (or within a day or two) 2p becomes available.

Of course, it’s worth remembering common sense and the adage about falling knives. A bounce is never guaranteed.


Alistair Strang has led high-profile and “top secret” software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know “how it worked” with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

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