It’s the first day of May and seasoned investors might recall the old adage “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day”. It advocates selling out of the stockmarket for the summer months and returning to the market in the autumn.
Some argue the saying has its origins from the days when stockbrokers left the City for a period of sporting and social events including Royal Ascot and Wimbledon. Others say the saying emerged much earlier when farmers would reinvest their profits when the harvest came in at the end of summer.
Statistics do not necessarily imply that market sell-offs occur in the summer months. However, if you are committed to selling funds or taking profits in May, these might be the funds and trusts you want to consider:
1. AXA Framlington UK Select Opportunities
It has recently been announced that long-serving lead manager Nigel Thomas is stepping down from AXA Framlington UK Select Opportunities.
“Thomas has built up a significant investor following over his 40 years in the industry, and while I believe the fund will be in safe hands with Chris St John as lead manager from 31st December 2018 much of the strong track record of the fund is attributable to Nigel Thomas,” says Rob Morgan, investment analyst at Charles Stanley.
Morgan adds that it won’t be an easy job managing such a large fund with investor outflows, which are inevitable following a manager change. While he advises against a knee jerk reaction, Morgan thinks it’s worth looking around for alternatives.
2. Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Jonathan Moyes, head of research at Whitechurch Securities, begins by saying that the decision to sell this investment trust will no doubt prove controversial given Nick Train’s extraordinary long-term track record.
“However, whilst global equity markets have encountered greater volatility in 2018, the trust’s share price performance has continued to surge, outstripping the performance of the trusts underlying assets by over 20% in the first four months of the year.”
The premium is sky-high, currently standing at 37%, which Moyes described as ‘excessive’.
Furthermore, he points out that 42% of the trust is invested in Lindell Train Ltd (LTI). “Were Lindsell Train’s high-quality investment style to fall out of favour with investors, this would add a great deal of uncertainty to the value of the trust and the sizable premium placed on the shares.”
Therefore, he believes taking some profits would be the prudent thing to do.
3. F&C Private Equity Investment Trust
“Private equity investments are certainly flavour of the month at present,” says Moyes. He has singled out F&C Private Equity Investment Trust (FPEO) for selling in May, because “emotions run high in the highly volatile world of private equity investing, with share price performance flipping between euphoria and despair”.
Moyes argues that while the management team have done well to lower financing costs, and de-risking the proposition following the fallout from the global financial crisis, “share price performance has surged ahead of underlying asset value, with the shares now trading on a premium, euphoria appears to be setting in”.
4. LondonMetric Property
Commenting on this trust, Moyes says: “Were I a holder of LondonMetric Property (LMP) I would have been extremely pleased with the performance of the trust over the longer term.”
However, this has not escaped the notice of investors, and it now trades at a 20% premium. Further, he argues the trust is by far the most liquid of the UK commercial property trusts.
“Whilst strong performance certainly helps, I believe the liquidity of the shares is influencing the trust’s sizable premium.”
But he cautions that in a more challenging environment, this liquidity can work both ways. “I would be tempted to seek greater value in some of the smaller commercial property trusts, where more enticing yields and attractive discounts can be found.”
Patrick Thomas, investment manager at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, concedes that Monks (MNKS), run by Charles Plowden at Baillie Gifford, has been a star performer in the global equity space.
“However, if you are looking to raise some cash it does look expensive on a 4% premium as well as an expensive aggregate underlying valuation of 21x forward price to earnings ratio compared to the MSCI World Index which trades on 15x forward earnings.”
Thomas adds that investors could instead access the trust’s Baillie Gifford stablemate, Scottish Mortgage (SMT), which is trading closer to net asset value.
6. Fundsmith Emerging Market Equity
Terry Smith’s foray into emerging market investing has not got off to a good start, with the trust returning 11.3% on a three year view, lagging rivals, with the average global emerging market investment trust showing a return of 24.6%, according to FE Trustnet, the analyst.
While loyal followers of Smith will keep the faith, Thomas has lost patience and has labelled the trust a sell.
He says: “Fundsmith Emerging Market Equity (FEET) is a good example of why one should not necessarily buy a brand name manager as they will not necessarily be able to execute in an unfamiliar market.” It is trading at a small premium “with a substantially worse performance profile that its emerging market peers,” he adds.
While Thomas likes the approach of buying good companies that are capable of weathering more challenging economic environments, he argues that Austin Forey, manager of the JP Morgan Emerging Markets investment trust (JMG) is “doing something similar with a far more impressive track record, and the trust is trading at a reasonable discount”.
This article was originally published in our sister magazine Money Observer. Click here to subscribe.
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation, and is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
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