Written 17 May 2018 – 23:26
FTSE for Friday (FTSE:UKX)
We’re pretty firmly in the “duh” camp as the FTSE (UKX) continues to bedazzle us with its strength. A pretty major puzzle emanates from the Retail Banking sector as, aside from RBS, they’ve been doing sod all! In addition, there’s the price of Brent Crude and an article we wrote on 22nd February.
- Clearing up FTSE 100 confusion
Back in February, we’d speculated on whether Brent would achieve an initial 83 dollars. The stuff is certainly within spitting distance of such a target level and while we refined this ambition to 81 dollars during April, our track record tends to suggest the initial calculation shall prove the correct one.
Our reason for bringing up Brent must be fairly obvious as the price of oiler shares has tended assist FTSE growth recently. If Brent intends a stutter anytime soon, this is liable to effect the FTSE – unless the retail banks start pulling their weight.
The banking sector (NMX8350) is currently 4,485 points and we do not anticipate fireworks with sector shares unless this index betters 4,600 points.
Near term, the FTSE (the index, not futures) need only to better 7,798 points to enter a cycle toward 7,855 initially. If bettered, secondary is at 7,990 points.
Given the situation with Brent Crude nearing a probable stutter level, along with the retail banks proving lethargic, we have some considerable doubts whether the UK market shall indeed continue painting higher highs.
In addition, there’s the problem of the prior market high in January as a bunch of folk will see this and make an assumption some reversal is coming. If upward travel triggers, the tightest stop loss position is at 7,712 points – red on the chart.
What happens if 7,712 breaks?
Fire, brimstone, and reversal to 7,680 probably. If broken, it should reach 7,665 and display some sort of bounce. If triggered, stop can be at 7,752 points.
Have a good weekend.
Source: interactive investor Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and “top secret” software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know “how it worked” with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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