AG BARR (LSE:BAG)
AG Barr (BAG) last featured in February where we proposed them as an ISA candidate. We’ve tried to avoid discussing price movements since, but their ‘The Snowman’ Xmas TV advert (in Scotland only?) makes them hard to ignore – lyrically a work of genius.
To get the self congratulatory nonsense out of the way, it was trading at 521p when we mentioned it. Giving 526p as a trigger level, the price rose to our initial 556p level, stuttered a while, then rose to our 605p level.
In fact, the share appears to be finding the 605p level strangely hypnotic, like a journalist who only writes about Brexit or Trump. Quite odd and frankly, it gets boring after a while!
The blue line on the chart is a potential downtrend, dating from 2011. We’re not entirely convinced this trend line shall prove valid, as the share price requires bettering 628p sometime soon to hopefully provoke a movement to 639p.
The important thing – from our perspective – will be intraday traffic should such an event occur, as this will tell us whether our suspicion of the blue line as “a thing” is correct or rubbish.
Should the price succeed in actually closing above ‘blue’, we’d hope the 639p thing shall be a footnote in history as continued fizz upward to 680p becomes viable. Secondary, if bettered, is a long-term 774p.
Of course, we always like to explore the miserable side of life as, should the price not manage above the blue line anytime soon, we’re able to calculate weakness below 596p, causing leakage down to 568p.
This takes the share into scary territory, the land of lower lows and, should 568p break, we’d be looking for bottom at 499p and a bounce.
This, alas, would ensure the share joins the FTSE (UKX) itself in making 2017 a virtual waste of time, the year when nothing really happened.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and “top secret” software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know “how it worked” with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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