When to take Lloyds Bank share rise seriously

Lloyds Bank (LSE:LLOY)

Writing about Lloyds Bank (LLOY) is similar to cutting the grass – something one would prefer avoid but, in reality, it needs to be done! Just as the lawn outside is starting to look threatening, it’s that time of the month where we really must pay attention to another UK retail bank.

As the chart below highlights, Lloyds Bank differs from our lawn in one important detail. Visually, it’s not ready to grow just yet.

If we view the trend since 2015 in blue on the chart, it appears the Lloyds Bank share price requires above 71.75p before any rise should be taken seriously.

This seemingly arbitrary trend isn’t quite as random as it appears. It maps the highs since Lloyds price was trashed at the end of 2009, hopefully providing a reasonable starting point for any proper share price recovery.

In addition, we’ve not shown the downtrend since 2007, but there’s a reasonable expectation the share price is now trading above this line.

Our reasoning against showing it was simple – Lloyds share price appears to be a virtual straight line, if the y-axis of the chart allows for 600p-plus.

What can be expected, should Lloyds Bank manage a miracle and close a session above 71.75p – blue?

It appears growth to an initial 75.5p makes sense with secondary, if bettered, now at 80p.

The visuals suggest achieving 80p is liable to be game changing for the shares future potentials as 100p and beyond becomes viable long term ambitions.

Of course, we need dwell on the down side of life as it IS a retail bank. Below 56p and it’s stuffed with an initial 49p expected as a footnote on a road to 31p. We would suspect the market would enact a 10:1 share consolidation as an effort to conceal such potentials. After all, it is a retail bank.

Source: interactive investor                Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and “top secret” software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know “how it worked” with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

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