Barclays is still expecting two rate hikes next year — no matter who the Federal Reserve chief may be, the bank’s head for Asia foreign exchange and rates strategy said on Thursday.
Regardless of who takes the top spot, the Fed is still a committee and decisions will converge, said Mitul Kotecha on the sidelines of the Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore.
“The dot plots are still higher than what the market is expecting. That convergence is what really we’re going to see going forward. We still think the Fed is going to hike twice next year,” Kotecha told CNBC.
“There could be risks of more if we see tax reform or strong tax cuts. But at the moment, we think that is going to be the case, whoever is in the Fed chair or vice chair,” he added.
Most watchers are expecting current Fed governor Jerome “Jay” Powell or Stanford economist John Taylor to be the central bank’s next chief.
If Powell gets the job, “markets will see this is a continuance of policy. It will be very Yellen-esque. It’s not going to change the perspective for the Fed or the dollar overall,” added Kotecha.