Despite September’s sharp fall in industrial production, Germany’s real GDP is set for significant growth in the fourth quarter, following an expected large plus in the third quarter, Ralph Solveen, a Commerzbank analyst, said.
Industrial production dropped 1.6 percent monthly in September, data from Destatis showed on November 7.
“However, this minus must be seen against the backdrop of the very large plus of 2.6 percent in August, which benefited from a special effect in the auto sector,” the economist observed.
Without the auto sector, the decline in manufacturing output was 0.4 percent in September.
For the third quarter in total, industrial production likely increased nearly 1.0 percent, Solveen said.
Moreover, this suggests a strong growth rate similar to the first two quarters for the overall economy.
The flash GDP estimate will be released by the Federal Statistical Office on November 13.
“For Q4 as well, a large plus in industrial production (and thus also in the overall economy) currently seems to be on the cards,” the economist said.
Source: RTT News